CORONA VIRUS: ADOPTING STRATEGIC PESSIMISM

The Covid 19 crisis has revealed an essential truth: the future of Africa is in strategic thinking and action. We will go nowhere if we don’t learn to anticipate on situations, fight them and make the most of them. In the management of the current crisis, African countries have committed one congenital sin which is the lack of solidarity. That is amazing because it’s the fundamental rule of management: the law of synergy. The law of synergy states that 1+1= 3. It means that teamwork is always more profitable than individual work.

That first mistake is the result of another congenital mistake: African rulers permanently ape the West. In that corona virus crisis, western leaders have displayed an historical selfishness. China has been abandoned to its fate. Then, when the Italian brother started to have fever and cough (first signs of Covid 19) the Uropean Union stayed of marble and the USA were content with a globally devastating withdrawal.

When one is conscious of one’s weaknesses, one must learn to come together. If the African Union, Ecowas, Cemac and all African and sub-regional organizations had mobilized, Africa would have had a better structured and more efficient response than the West because thinking always produces solutions. Now that the harm is done, what’s the solution?

Before knowing what should be done, we must understand what should have been done. A social crisis never happens all of a sudden. It is always the result of many factors which are close or far. In one word, there is before the crisis; warning signs. In this case, the epidemics in China. The contagion mode was known and the conditions for a global propagation were identified, especially air and maritime navigation. There should have been an anticipation strategy. We did nothing.  The crisis is here but still in its beginning. It will witness a period of growth, a development phase, a peak and a decline phase. Then there will be a risky post crisis period which may result in one or several health, social, political or economic crises if we don’t pay due attention to it.

The management of the crisis requires an appropriate state of mind. Scientist must work with optimism and find a cure. Populations must be realistic and follow the measures taken by governments with much discipline. Government must have a spirit of strategic pessimism. What do we mean by strategic pessimism?

Strategic pessimism consist in building the most devastating scenario and anticipating on the consequences of such a drama through appropriate preventive solutions. We must permanently keep in mind the following idea: “We risk having thousands of deaths like Italy, Spain or China. We risk having thousands of sick people to hospitalize. We are going to run out of beds in our hospitals. We are going to run out of nursing staff. We are going to run out of ambulances…” That pessimistic vision urges us to get prepared for the worst, mobilize all our financial, technical, scientific, strategic and human resources to handle the crisis in a diligent and urgent way. Strategic pessimism has the advantage of putting the pressure on leaders and keep them concentrated on the job whereas populations benefit from the outcomes of their efficient action and are, in principle, peaceful.

It’s simple, he that prepares himself to take care of 1,000 sick people whereas the epidemics has contaminated 200 thousand people elsewhere will have prepared himself to count one million sick people plus a health crisis plus an economic crisis plus a social crisis plus a political crisis. May God inspire us.

Adjon-Guy DANHO
Prospective specialist, Communication expert, Writer and Teacher.

Send your news stories to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. and via WhatsApp on 004917632140550